Wednesday, February 3, 2016

90% of Internet Accounts Will be Mobile by 2020

As much time as policymakers and advocates spend promoting high speed access capacity on fixed networks, one might suggest that concern is largely misplaced. That is not to say we should not narrow disparities. It is to suggest that the problem is not as intractable, or as bad, as we often hear, in developed economies.

There are disparities, but  consumer-available bandwidth has been growing at nearly Moore's Law rates for decades since the advent of dial-up Internet access.

The more-important development is that in developing regions, where availability and costs are a huge issue, the same platform that “solved” the problem of voice communications substantially will “solve” the problem of Internet access, even as new platforms make their own contributions.

Any analysis of what is happening throughout the developing world would show the clear trend: mobile access is the way most people are going to use communications and the Internet. By 2020, untethered and mobile platforms might represent 90 percent of the access instances, where fixed networks represent just 10 percent.



Broadband : fixed and mobile
Percent market shares ¹
Date
Fixed (wired) broadband
Active mobile broadband
Actual %
Forecast %
Actual %
Forecast %
2005
100
100
2006
100
100
2007
56.4
54.2
43.6
45.8
2008
49.3
49.6
50.7
50.4
2009
43.2
44.6
56.8
55.4
2010
40.4
39.4
59.6
60.6
2011
33.7
34.2
66.3
65.8
2012
29.1
29.2
70.9
70.8
2013
24.9
24.8
75.1
75.2
2014
20.9
79.1
2015
17.8
82.2
2016
15.4
84.6
2017
13.5
86.5
2018
12.1
87.9
2019
11.1
88.9
2020
10.4
89.6
Annual average growth rate
-12.7%
-11.9%
9.5%
5.3%
Revenue will track the account base, as well. 


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