As much time as policymakers and advocates spend promoting high speed access capacity on fixed networks, one might suggest that concern is largely misplaced. That is not to say we should not narrow disparities. It is to suggest that the problem is not as intractable, or as bad, as we often hear, in developed economies.
There are disparities, but consumer-available bandwidth has been growing at nearly Moore's Law rates for decades since the advent of dial-up Internet access.
The more-important development is that in developing regions, where availability and costs are a huge issue, the same platform that “solved” the problem of voice communications substantially will “solve” the problem of Internet access, even as new platforms make their own contributions.
Any analysis of what is happening throughout the developing world would show the clear trend: mobile access is the way most people are going to use communications and the Internet. By 2020, untethered and mobile platforms might represent 90 percent of the access instances, where fixed networks represent just 10 percent.
Broadband : fixed and mobile
Percent market shares ¹
| ||||
Date
|
Fixed (wired) broadband
|
Active mobile broadband
| ||
Actual %
|
Forecast %
|
Actual %
|
Forecast %
| |
2005
|
100
|
100
| ||
2006
|
100
|
100
| ||
2007
|
56.4
|
54.2
|
43.6
|
45.8
|
2008
|
49.3
|
49.6
|
50.7
|
50.4
|
2009
|
43.2
|
44.6
|
56.8
|
55.4
|
2010
|
40.4
|
39.4
|
59.6
|
60.6
|
2011
|
33.7
|
34.2
|
66.3
|
65.8
|
2012
|
29.1
|
29.2
|
70.9
|
70.8
|
2013
|
24.9
|
24.8
|
75.1
|
75.2
|
2014
|
20.9
|
79.1
| ||
2015
|
17.8
|
82.2
| ||
2016
|
15.4
|
84.6
| ||
2017
|
13.5
|
86.5
| ||
2018
|
12.1
|
87.9
| ||
2019
|
11.1
|
88.9
| ||
2020
|
10.4
|
89.6
| ||
Annual average growth rate
|
-12.7%
|
-11.9%
|
9.5%
|
5.3%
|
Revenue will track the account base, as well.
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