Saturday, August 5, 2023

5G is Vital, if Not Yet "Revolutionary"

Though we are early in its life cycle, some argue 5G remains “revolutionary,” a “transformative leap” that will “reshape” connectivity. Others say it is a disappointment, either as a driver of near-term enterprise use cases, or as an enabler of higher-value, higher-revenue consumer mobile services.  


The eventual “truth” is likely to be far more nuanced. Some valuable new lines of business eventually could emerge. By design, 5G supports device density quite a bit higher than was available on 4G or earlier networks. By design, 5G supports network slicing, which enables private networks with some quality of service features. 


But 5G was always going to be a bit of a disappointment for most consumer accounts, which drive roughly 60 percent of total mobile operator revenues, for reasons related to the dynamics of all internet access and transport services. 


At a high level, demand for data consumption does not have a revenue elasticity that matches the consumption elasticity. In other words, mobile and fixed network operators cannot assume that increases in supply will produce increases in average revenue per unit that match the rate of consumption. 


To be sure, typical recurring charges for home broadband, for example, have increased since 1990, and access speeds for home broadband have risen as well. The cost to supply, on a per-unit basis, arguably is less important than the ability to charge more for higher consumption or higher speed. 


In the U.S. home broadband market, for example, per unit prices have plummeted, but typical  home broadband speeds have grown by an order of magnitude about every decade. Retail prices for stand-alone home broadband have not increased that fast, taking five decades to grow an order of magnitude. 


Year

Typical Speed

Typical Data Consumption

Price per Unit

Monthly Consumer Subscription Charges

1990

14.4 Kbps

10 megabytes

$1 per megabyte

$20 per month

2000

1.5 Mbps

100 megabytes

$0.1 per megabyte

$30 per month

2010

10 Mbps

1 gigabyte

$0.01 per megabyte

$50 per month

2020

100 Mbps

10 gigabytes

$0.001 per megabyte

$70 per month

2023

1 gigabit per second

1 terabyte

$0.0001 per megabyte

$100 per month


The key business takeaway is that supplied capacity must continue to increase, but will happen faster than price increases to match. 


Mobile operators have arguably had better outcomes where it comes to capacity supply and retail prices. In the U.S. market, it has taken three decades for prices to increase by an order of magnitude, as capabilities have grown three orders of magnitude. 


Year

Typical Speed (Mbps)

Typical Data Consumption (GB)

Price per Unit (GB)

Monthly Consumer Subscription Charges (\)

1990

1

0.1

100

20

2000

10

1

10

50

2010

100

10

1

100

2020

1,000

100

0.1

150


For such reasons alone, revenue expectations for faster mobile or fixed network internet access are likely to remain challenging. The argument that 5G would bring significantly-higher revenues, in the form of the ability to “charge more” for access speed, always was going to be quite difficult. 


It remains to be seen how much incremental new revenue might be created by internet of things connections, private networks or edge computing, the services most-often cited as “new” enterprise features of 5G. 


As it has happened, an unexpected “new” revenue source of some significant magnitude--in the form of 5G fixed wireless for home broadband--has developed rather quickly. 


Mobile Operator

Subscribers (Q1 2023)

Annual Subscription Revenues (Q1 2023)

Growth Rate (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)

T-Mobile

3.2 million

$1.2 billion

120%

Verizon

1.5 million

$600 million

100%

AT&T

0.5 million

$200 million

50%


Whether one views such new revenue sources as “revolutionary” or “merely” significant is the issue. Still, the growth of 5G fixed wireless for home broadband clearly is important for contestants in the home broadband space. 


And 5G fixed wireless remains, at the moment, the clearest “new” revenue source for mobile operators. It always is conceivable that other enterprise-focused revenue streams will emerge as well, though the magnitude of those revenue streams remains more uncertain.


The point is that we likely err when arguing either for “revolutionary” or “disappointing” outcomes for 5G. We still are early in global deployment. New revenue sources generally take time to develop. 


But 5G remains vitally important for other reasons. All internet access providers, all data transport providers and data centers must increase capacity on a sustained basis. Each new mobile generation is the way that capacity increase happens.


Mobile operators may indeed be disappointed at the revenue outcomes from 5G so far. But 5G is essential for protecting the value of the business, as will be true of 6G and subsequent platforms. 


“You get to keep your business” might sound like a rather-trivial outcome. It is not.


Friday, May 26, 2023

Will Enterprise 5G Really be the Growth Driver?

5G IoT often is touted as a growth opportunity for mobile service providers, and rightly so. Sensors, appliances and computers supporting internet of things applications will generally have to communicate. 


So the need for internet and data connectivity is not really an issue. How big the revenue opportunity might be is the key question.  


The core problem for new 5G services in the edge computing, private networks or internet of things areas, for example, is that these lines of business will contribute almost non-measurable revenue increases for most mobile operators in the near to medium term. And even long term, one might argue that substitute products will satisfy much of the demand. 


Keep in mind that mobile service represents about 75 percent of global service provider revenues. And that business is close to saturated in many markets.


The new revenue streams will be small in magnitude, while even a modest decline in a legacy service can--because of the larger size of the existing revenue streams--can pose big problems. 


Still, many service providers, for example, expect big opportunities in business services, which underpin hopes for private networks, edge computing and IoT. But revenue magnitudes matter.  


Mobile consumer revenue always drives the bulk of mobile operator service revenues. Fixed services add about 25 percent. And revenue growth is the key issue for both types of business. 


Multi-access edge computing has been touted as a new value driver and revenue source for access providers. But how big a contribution might be possible is the issue. No matter how big the recurring service revenue becomes, it seems likely that most of the revenue will be reaped by the same sorts of firms that presently offer cloud computing as a service, and not access providers. 


Private networks and internet of things connections always are said to be growth opportunities, and that remains correct. The only issue is “who” earns those revenues and “how much” revenue can be generated. 


No matter how important internet and data connections are for IoT sensors and devices, most of that demand will likely be fulfilled by rival platforms, not mobile networks. Wide area network connectivity will play a role, but possibly mostly as indirect transport for devices that connect locally using Wi-Fi and other wireless in-building and in-home technologies. 


And even when the mobile operator does provide the connections, per-device revenue is going to be a fraction of what we are accustomed to seeing from phone accounts. 


The point is that it will be hard for new 5G services for enterprises and business to move the service provider revenue needle.

Mobility Drives 75% of Service Provider Revenues, Essentially All Revenue Growth

Since mobile services now represent at least 75 percent of total industry service revenues, what happens in the mobility segment arguably drives overall revenue performance these days. But what happens in the fixed networks segment also matters, as fixed networks still represent about a quarter of industry revenues.


MTN Consulting says that service provider revenues declined about six percent in the third quarter of 2022, after a similar six-percent decline in revenues in the third quarter of 2021, “largely due to weak service revenues.”


Recurring service revenue in the third quarter of 2022 actually dropped about seven percent, while equipment revenues grew two percent (largely mobile device sales). But services account for nearly 90 percent of total revenues.


Nor are the quarterly figures unusual. And there is a major nuance to consider when looking at revenue growth. As global mobile subscriptions have added billions of new accounts, total global revenue has grown modestly.


But discrete service providers in many markets have actually seen negative revenue growth rates. The trend also is complicated because fixed network revenue growth became negative as early as 1990, as competition ate away at profit margins and gross revenue. The counterbalance has been the growth of newer sources such as mobile phone service and home broadband. In the U.S. market, the trend has been pronounced. 


Year

Fixed Network Revenue Growth %

1980

10.0

1981

9.0

1982

8.0

1983

7.0

1984

6.0

1985

5.0

1986

4.0

1987

3.0

1988

2.0

1989

1.0

1990

0.0

1991

-1.0

1992

-2.0

1993

-3.0

1994

-4.0

1995

-5.0

1996

-6.0

1997

-7.0

1998

-8.0

1999

-9.0

2000

-10.0

2001

-11.0

2002

-12.0

2003

-13.0

2004

-14.0

2005

-15.0

2006

-16.0

2007

-17.0

2008

-18.0

2009

-19.0

2010

-20.0

2011

-21.0

2012

-22.0

2013

-23.0

2014

-24.0

2015

-25.0

2016

-26.0

2017

-27.0

2018

-28.0

2019

-29.0

2020

-30.0

2021

-31.0

2022

-32.0

2023

-33.0


Looking at all fixed and mobile services, global growth probably will average up to two percent annually for the foreseeable future. Given the challenges in the fixed networks segment, it is reasonable to argue that overall revenue growth will be driven by the mobile segment.


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