5G private network forecasts are fluid, for any number of good reasons. The market is new. Adoption rate forecasts are hampered by fragmentary deployments. And contestant roles are not yet fully established.
5G private networks might represent $7.5 billion in spending by enterprises in 2025, some estimate. Polaris estimates a 2027 market worth $8.3 billion by 2027.
Others estimate $16 billion in private network spending by that point. Sometimes analysts revise their projections upward virtually every year.
Mobile Experts estimated in 2019 spending at less than $3.5 billion by 2024. A year later the forecast was boosted to just shy of $10 billion. The early 2021 forecast showed figures were consistent with the 2020 estimate.
Beyond the issue of overall market size, there is a key matter of ecosystem and value chain roles. Some portion of the 5G private networks market consists of infrastructure purchased by enterprises to support their “do it yourself” private networks. The analogy is hardware and software purchased directly by end users to support their own Wi-Fi networking.
Mobile operators might sell private 5G “as a service” to customers, or play other roles in system design, deployment or system integration. Managed service providers also are expected to be active in the market, as always is the case for all sorts of enterprise and government private networks.
In addition to existing system integrators, other new providers are expected to develop as well. Infrastructure providers, in particular, benefit from adding system integration to their hardware and software supplier roles.
Application and software providers might also play roles as suppliers of new capabilities enabled by 5G private networks. Suppliers of internet of things capabilities provide an example.
The point is that identifying potential revenue opportunities in the 5G private networks space requires an analysis of where revenue might flow to value chain participants, as there are many contributing suppliers. Consider mobile service providers and “do it yourself” roles.
Enterprise “do it yourself” networks will mean revenue for infrastructure suppliers and system integrators. Virtual private networks, supplied “as a service” will result in revenues for mobile operators. A wide variety of hybrid networks are possible that divide enterprise DIY and mobile service provider, managed service or system integrator roles.
For all of those reasons, there is much divergence in forecasts of revenue potential. Perhaps the biggest divergences lie in the revenue shares possible for different parts of the ecosystem.
A $10 billion annual market where 80 percent of revenue is earned by other providers in the ecosystem might leave only $2 billion to be earned by mobile service providers. That is a small market, indeed.
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