Gigabit 4G is Possible, but How Commercially Widespread?

The 4G mobile platform has not yet hit its peak in some regions, though globally, 4G might have peaked in 2021, according to Ericsson estimates. 

And it that is the case, mobile capital expenditure should shift decisively to 5G.  

source: Ericsson 

That does not mean 4G is unimportant. Indeed, by some estimates, 4G still will be dominant globally through 2025. But there is a difference between platforms to harvest and those in which to invest. 4G is the former; 5G the latter. 

source: GSMA 

Even as mobile operators launch 5G, 4G continues to improve, though we might question how many mobile operators are going to invest too heavily in boosting 4G performance to gigabit levels, for example, when most capex is going to 5G. 

It is possible to wring more performance out of 4G, to be sure. The business issue is whether it makes sense to push too hard to improve 4G when capital has to be deployed in support of the new 5G network. 

Some mobile operators have been focusing mainly on three technologies from the LTE-Advanced tool-kit – carrier aggregation, 4x4 MIMO and 256 QAM modulation in the downlink.  Used together and with sufficient aggregated bandwidth, can deliver maximum peak downlink speeds approaching, and even exceeding, gigabit per second speeds. 

Still, most 4G networks might not reach that theoretical headline speed, just as most 5G networks might not ever generally hit the headline speed. 

source: Statista 

GSA has cataloged 37 commercial LTE networks capable (according to statements made by the operators) of delivering peak theoretical throughput of around 1 Gigabit (998 Mbps) or more in the downlink. 

According to statements from the operators, seven of these can deliver peak theoretical DL throughput of 1.050 Gbps up to 1.2 Gbps (equivalent to Cat-18 throughput performance), five operators claim pockets of their networks can deliver 1.2–1.6 Gbps DL (Cat-19 performance) and one operator states speeds in its network of up to 1.7 Gbps (Cat-20). 

These speeds are only available within limited geographical areas in each operator’s network. As far as GSA is aware, none of these operators state that they can deliver these performances network-wide, says GSA.