5G Generally Offers 10X Improvement over 4G

It remains unclear how soon 5G network features will result in some change of consumer behavior, use case change, value drivers or revenue models. But the potential is there, as 5G promises an order of magnitude--or greater--change in key performance metrics.

4G LTE peaks out at gigabit data rates. By design, 5G peaks at 20 Gbps. Where 4G latency ideally is about 10 milliseconds, 5G will ideally be about one millisecond. The 4G standard uses channels up to 100 MHz of bandwidth; 5G authorizes 1,000-MHz channels.

In real-world use, 5G should still offer about a 10-times improvement over 4G.

source: Statista

Which IoT Verticals are Most Promising?

By some estimates, about 10 percent of the value and revenue generated by a single IoT sensor comes in the form of the sensor connection. All the rest of the value generated by use of sensor comes elsewhere.

In fact, some argue, only about two percent of the complete value of insights gleaned from the use of sensors comes from spending on the connectivity for the sensor.

Other analyses suggest connectivity could generate as much as 30 percent of total value, but few seem to believe that is likely.

Most would likely agree that the actual solution itself will provide the most value, and generate the largest single share of revenue within the ecosystem. Services related to installing and operating such applications generally are viewed as important revenue streams as well.

source: Analysys Mason

So, as hard as it might be, it makes sense for connectivity providers to seek additional roles, to provide greater value, in IoT. That is not to discount the traditional horizontal business model (sell SIMs, or connections, rather than vertical solutions).

No single telco can be a value-added supplier in every vertical, so horizontal sales of basic connectivity still will make sense in many, if not most cases. But at least some larger telcos will seek to add more value, to increase value and revenue opportunities.

source: Bain

So far, industrial internet of things and connected vehicles have emerged as early areas of interest. Industrial IoT is widely acknowledged to be among the largest market opportunities, so the interest in that vertical is clear. The automotive vertical might not stand out in terms of its potential size.

What the automotive IoT opportunity does represent is the purest and strongest case for use of the mobile platform, compared to all others.

Satellite is the only choice for ocean-based applications and other really-remote settings. In-home and in-office or in-factory applications can be addressed by several different platforms, including local wireless platforms such as Wi-Fi.

source: Bain

But the mobile network is the obvious choice for vehicle IoT, which will require support for outdoor, moving vehicles as well as edge computing (both onboard the vehicle--device edge-- as well as network edge).

Fixed Network Growth Rates Might be Higher than Mobile in Some Markets

To the extent there remains growth in the global telecom business, it is mobility services, particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Asia (China and India accounting for the great bulk of account gains).

Almost ironically, some predict that fixed network accounts and revenue will grow faster than mobility in a number of markets, with the caveat that fixed network installed bases are tiny, compared to the base of mobile connections and accounts.

source: STL Partners

Where mobile subscriptions already are more than 100 per 100 inhabitants globally, fixed connections are about 13 per 100 inhabitants, globally. Internet access accounts using a fixed network are about at the same level.

So the potential growth rates for fixed services will be higher than mobility, in some cases, driven almost exclusively by demand for internet access.

source: ITU

How Does Internet of Things Work?

IBM's Think Academy explains how IoT works, generically.

4G and 5G in the Same Spectrum

Up to this point, discussions of spectrum sharing have centered on innovations such as Citizens Broadband Radio Service, where multiple license modes are available to users sharing a single block of spectrum. Discussions of dynamic spectrum use have centered on innovations such as TV White Spaces, where cognitive radios sense where unused spectrum is and tune to those frequencies when transmitting.

Now dynamic spectrum sharing will be used in the transition from 4G to 5G, allowing existing 4G spectrum to support 5G devices, in the existing 4G spectrum. That is one more example of the way 5G builds on 4G, as well as the growing importance of new ways of allocating spectrum that are far more efficient than past methods.

source: Ericsson

"Dynamic sharing just allows you to use the same spectrum for both LTE and (5G) NR," says Igal Elbaz, AT&T SVP.

The Ericsson Spectrum Sharing software, for example, dynamically shares spectrum between 4G and 5G within the same frequency band, based on the actual traffic demand. The solution is available on all Ericsson Radio System products shipped from 2015 onwards.

Radio Network Densification Increasingly Uses Virtual Network Approach

Airspan VP of Strategy and Marketing Damiano Coletti describes the Air 5G open architecture vRAN platform. 

New 5G Use Cases: What Do 3G, 4G Tell Us?

There is one enduring characteristic of market expectations for all mobile platforms beginning with 3G: observers always say many  exotic new applications and use cases will emerge. We have been wrong about almost all of them, at least in terms of applications used at scale. That is not to say  new use cases will fail to develop. That has happened with every next-generation mobile platform.

Since 3G was launched, and expectations about new use cases were high, reality has been less robust than expected. That is not to say there were no new applications used widely. On the other hand, most of the more-futuristic apps did, in fact, not develop.   

Here’s one expectation for 5G new use cases, with the early applications including entertainment video and faster internet access. In the early days of 4G, machine-to-machine use cases were predicted. We now call that “internet of things,” but 4G did not lead to widespread M2M deployment.

source: IDTechEx

New lead apps and use cases will emerge in the 5G era. But we might ultimately be surprised by what happens.

Some See $1 Trillion in 5G Network Infrastructure Spending

Over a long enough period of time, sure, $1 trillion will be spent on 5G networks. But much of that capex is simply the annual investments mobile operators always make in their networks. Still, there is growing evidence that even in China and the United States, mobile operators have found ways to moderate capex impact. 

CBRS to Support 5G and 4G

The boundaries between advanced 4G and early 5G are quite thin. Case in point: the shared spectrum Citizens Broadband Radio Service, originally created to support private and public services using Long Term Evolution 4G, is being adapted for 5G as well.

The CBRS Alliance says it will start work on new specifications that will support “OnGo” CBRS  services using 5G. CBRS Alliance Release 3 will address support for 5G deployments using shared spectrum in the 3.5 GHz band.

source: Dell'Oro Group

The new specifications from the CBRS Alliance will complement 5G New Radio (5G NR), the new air interface developed by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) to support 5G.

Both indoor and outdoor use cases are envisioned, but fixed wireless could well emerge as the leading deployment case, despite the expected use to support indoor communications.  

You Can't Think About 5G Use Cases Using a 4G Framework

“4G thinking cannot be used to evaluate 5G ideas,” Alex Holt, KPMG Global Chair, Media & Telecommunications, has argued. “The reality is that 5G will be the catalyst to significant long term changes in the way people communicate, and what gets communicated.”

A statement so sweeping always is liable to be misinterpreted, but look at the way Holt frames his statement.

“We communicate to share needs and important information,” Holt has said. “The second level adds more sophisticated language and comprehension, allowing us to share thoughts and ideas.”

The money quote probably is this: “The most sophisticated thing humans can do with communication is to share feelings and emotions.”

That perhaps is on the order of the way Nokia Bell Labs has positioned the future of networking, where the value proposition for connectivity is quite different. The thesis is that communications network value will be created to the extent that it “creates time” for people and augments human intelligence.

Nokia does that mean that in the astrophysics sense of manufacturing time itself. Think of the word “productivity” or “efficiency” and the sense arguably is clearer.

source: Nokia Bell Labs  

In other words, connectivity is not going to be the reason businesses, organizations and people spend money on communication capabilities, in the sense of “people want holes, even when they buy shovels.”

That is akin to the past thinking we have used about the value of any computing or communications capability: it is the solution to a business or consumer problem, not an end in itself. People do not spend money on smartphones because they like carrying little computers in their purses and pockets.

The devices only enable the conversations they can have with people; the information they can discover immediately; the transactions they can conduct; the music and video they can watch. It is likely that sense which drives the Bell Labs notion of value driven by the ability to “create time.”

Nor would it be in keeping with the concept to pin all the coming changes on 5G or communications capabilities, but on a complex of changes anchored by artificial intelligence, which Bell Labs prefers to call “augmented intelligence.”

Many would argue the big shift--as was started in the early days of the visual internet--is in the direction of audio and visual content, media that are “warmer” than voice; more capable of expressing emotion and context than text-based messaging.

Holt’s notion likely will prove correct in another sense. Only in the first days of analog mobility networks was the business driven by business and enterprise use cases. Since 2G, up to 4G, consumer adoption has driven the global mobile business, and the whole telecom business as well.

In the 5G era, the big opportunities for use case, revenue and profit growth will come from enterprise sources once more, in the form of all sorts of internet of things use cases and applications. It is that sense that likely underpins Holt’s suggestion that 4G thinking will not be so helpful in imagining 5G use cases.  

Execs Still Unsure of 5G Impact

Business and technology executives globally underestimate the disruptive potential of 5G technology that will result from increased network speeds and capacity, according to Accenture. But respondents might also simply be unsure about outcomes.

Some 53 percent of 1,800 executives from mid-sized and large businesses across industries in 10 countries believe there are “very few” things that 5G will enable them to do that they cannot already do with 4G networks.

On the other hand, More than two in five executives also expect 5G to have a “significant” impact on speed (46 percent) and capacity (42 percent).

On one hand, fewer than two in five executives (37 percent) expect 5G to bring a “revolutionary” shift in speed and capacity.

On the other hand, 70 percent 0f respondents also say they believe 5G applications will give them a competitive edge with customers.

source: Accenture

One might argue executives imply are not sure what advantages 5G will bring. Some 72 percent of executives said they need help imagining the future possibilities and use cases of 5G.

LTE-Advanced Boosts Speeds, for all U.S. Mobile Service Providers

LTE-Advanced is supposed to be faster than LTE, and it virtually always is, as LTE-A allows the use of more bandwidth. That is true for AT&T’s LTE-A deployments, marketed as 5G Evolution. The roadmap for 5G runs through LTE-A, suppliers and standards bodies deliberately have chosen.  

source: OpenSignal

Keep in mind that lots of things affect end user experienced speeds, including network loading, especially the number of customers trying to use any part of the network. Simply, networks of equivalent capacity, but fewer customers, will provide faster speeds per user. Networks with lots more contention for available resources will often not be able to match speeds on lightly-loaded networks.

T-Mobile US Launching Trial of Fixed Wireless Product

T-Mobile US is starting an invitation-only pilot of its fixed network replacement service based on use of the 4G LTE network, aiming at rural customers.

The company aims to connect up to 50,000 homes this year in rural and underserved areas of the country.

T-Mobile US has said that if its merger with Sprint is approved, it will by 2024 reach 9.5 million U.S. households with its fixed network internet access replacement service.

The service would support speeds of around 50 Mbps, and allow unlimited wireless service over LTE, for $50 per month with AutoPay.

Is Verizon's $10 Per Month 5G Premium Unreasonable?

Among the oft-repeated claims one hears is that U.S. internet access is too expensive. So some object to the $10 per month price increase Verizon charges for its 5G plans, compared to 4G plans with equivalent usage allowances.

We can debate whether the better 5G service merits a price differential. We can debate the longevity of any such price differences. But it is not actually true that U.S. internet access prices are “too expensive,” though that claim often is made.

Such claims usually rely on posted retail prices, and then compare those prices to posted retail prices elsewhere in the world.

Alert observers will note that income and prices differ from country to country; in developed and developing countries. Adjust prices to reflect those differences and one finds prices are not too high in developed nations, and while more expensive in developing nations, prices are dropping rapidly.

And then there is the additional problem of “what” we are comparing. Available service plans are one thing. Consumer behavior is another matter. And most service providers run promotions of various types, so it never is clear how many customers are buying which plans.

And many service providers will drop price to keep an account that is about to churn away.

Also, in some markets, where bundled services are common, it might not be possible to determine actual price, except to say that bundle prices involve discounts.

So comparing posted retail prices across countries is an inherently problematic exercise. Aside from normalizing prices to reflect purchasing power, one way of looking at prices is to compare them to income, and state price as a percentage of household income.

Do so, and you find that developed market internet access is not expensive, even in the United States.

FCC Authorizes Experimental Licenses in 95-GHz to 3,000-GHz Spectrum

Since a next-generation mobile network is launched about every decade, and since 5G is being launched now, that means we are roughly 10 years away from 6G. And since every digital mobile platform has involved faster speeds, lower latency and use of higher frequencies, we can probably assume that will be part of the move to 6G.

In that regard, the U.S. Federal Communication Commission has adopted new rules allowing experimental licenses of 10-year duration for services in the  95 GHz to 3,000 GHz spectrum, intended to allow innovators to create potential new use cases.

The FCC believes imaging and sensing operations are likely use cases. But most will forecast that this new spectrum also will be part of the 6G standard, as it is developed.

The Spectrum Horizons First Report and Order creates a new category of experimental licenses for use of frequencies between 95 GHz and 3 THz, on an unlicensed basis, representing 21.2 GHz of capacity available for use by unlicensed devices.

source: http://vijaya-wwwmoblitz.blogspot.com/

Of course, technical performance or spectrum employed does not directly speak to applications, and that is where the value of the new platforms has been realized.

How Much 5G Mobile Substitution, and Where?

It has been a couple of decades since serious questions were raised about the respective roles of Wi-Fi and mobile networks as platforms for consumer data access. But the debate is emerging again.

Two decades ago, observers debated whether Wi-Fi was a substitute for mobile access. The latest debate flips the question. Now we debate whether mobile is a substitute for fixed network internet access, or whether 5G can replace Wi-Fi.

To be sure, many are sure that will not happen on a widespread basis, just as Wi-Fi and mobile became complements, not substitutes.

source: Deloitte

But it seems almost certain that, in some use cases, 5G networks will displace Wi-Fi networks. Private networks using 5G seem attractive to some industrial customers because of the built-in latency performance, for example. Some auto manufacturers also are looking at 5G as a replacement for Wi-Fi.  

Others believe 5G could replace consumer home internet access, as yet the latest form of mobile substitution. To a large extent, the feasibility of using mobile platforms to replace fixed internet access, or 5G to replace Wi-Fi, hinge on tariffs and bandwidth.

Until 5G (especially using millimeter wave assets; spectrum aggregation and other tools), it would not have been feasible--either for reasons of capacity or prices--to consider using mobile networks as a full product substitute for fixed networks.

source: Vantage Point

Bulk access at low prices is among the key issues. Many would still argue that mobile substitutes (including fixed wireless) cannot match the cost-per-bit profiles of fixed networks. But mobile data prices have been dropping steadily, though some fixed network services continue to hold an order of magnitude advantage in cost-per-bit.

Of course, all cost-per-bit metrics are statistical. The effective price per bit actually depends on the actual amount of data consumed by any particular customer.

source: WiFiforward.org

Others argue that price, capacity and speed of 5G networks could in fact offer competitive offers for many customers.

Yet others believe that spectrum aggregation--the ability to bond Wi-Fi to 4G and 5G--actually will work to reduce the amount of deliberate Wi-Fi offload. Cisco has been on both sides of that argument, in recent years.  

The most-reasonable assumption is that 5G will displace Wi-Fi or fixed networks in specific use cases, and not generally. There will be some industrial settings where 5G might well substitute for Wi-Fi.

Some consumers will find they can "cut the cord" on fixed network access because mobile offers enough speed and usage, at the right price, for the actual use cases some customers have.

In other cases, 5G fixed wireless might offer a full product substitute for some households.