By 2023, 5G smartphone shipments will account for 25 percent of shipments (and therefore nearly that in terms of sales, one might add) IDC now predicts. That suggests 5G service accounts will remain relatively low as a percentage of total accounts, for some time, given the size of the installed base of accounts.
Ericsson, for its part, has forecast about one billion 5G subscriptions by 2023, about 11 percent of total subscriptions globally.
In essence, the device market has become largely a replacement market. For example, 2019 is projected to be the third consecutive year of declining shipments, with smartphone sales dropping by 0.8 percent in 2019 to 1.39 billion devices.
Still, smartphone sales are expected to grow about 2.3 percent, with year-over-year growth of 2.3% expected in the second half of 2019.
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