One can argue that mobile networks have moved through three distinct eras since 2G, and will change again in the 5G era.
Looking only at data use cases, in the 2G era mobile was a reasonable choice only for messaging. In the 3G era, mobile internet access improved, but Wi-Fi still offered higher throughput. Consumer web surfing became a tolerable experience, but video streaming remained a challenge.
The 4G era was the first where mobile user experience of web applications actually became comparable to fixed network experience, for most apps, including streaming video.
The Long Term Evolution 4G network also became the first mobile network to routinely offer higher performance than Wi-Fi.
In the coming 5G era, the mobile network will, in many cases, become a fully-functional substitute for the fixed network, for all applications.
To be sure, platform roles have changed quite a lot over the past few decades.
The roles and values provided by various access networks (telco, cable TV, satellite, Wi-Fi, fixed wireless) tend to shift over time, based in part on ubiquity, in part on economics, in part on performance, in part on the value-price relationship, in part on end user behavior.
Over time, telco fixed networks have carried less traffic than the mobile networks, and have in many markets lost usage, compared to the mobile networks. Cable TV networks have in some markets become viable alternatives to telco services. In a few markets, cable networks are the market share leaders.
Satellite networks continue to have an exclusive role in some use cases, but are challenged as communications and app consumption move to point-to-point, on-demand use modes, and away from point-to-multipoint content delivery.
Wi-Fi has virtually everywhere become an integral part of the access fabric, and will be further integrated with licensed access modes. Fixed wireless, traditionally a niche option for rural service, is on the precipice of major use in urban markets in the 5G era.
In the 3G era, Wi-Fi’s main attractions were better performance and better value (mobile users did not incur mobile usage charges). In the 4G era, this has changed.
For users with very-large or unlimited usage plans, there is no advantage to switching to Wi-Fi for access, either in terms of performance or cost. Also, 4G access tends to outperform Wi-Fi, so there is no advantage to switching to Wi-Fi, in terms of user experience.
In the 5G era, at least some 5G fixed wireless services will be full and direct substitutes for fixed network cabled access. At the same time, mobile access will likely continue to offer higher value for internet access, in more use cases, compared to alternatives such as Wi-Fi.
The 5G era also is likely to be the first where the business model changes again. In the 2G era, voice and text messaging drove value and revenue. In the 3G era, mobile internet access emerged as the growth driver.
In the 4G era, streaming video was the revenue driver, largely because video drives so much data usage, shaping demand for both larger-usage plans and unlimited plans or video-exempt plans.
In the 5G era, incremental revenue is likely to shift from consumer to enterprise apps, returning to a pattern first seen in 1G and early 2G, where business accounts drove growth.
What will be different in the 5G era is that the incremental new accounts will be driven by enterprises and organizations deploying sensors, not human users. Those internet of things and machine-to-machine use cases will not be based primarily on human users, their smartphones, tablets, internet TVs or PCs.
The point is that each generation of mobile networks has had different and new revenue growth drivers. The coming 5G network will not be any different, in that sense.
What will be new is a shift to incremental growth driven by non-human use cases.
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