Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What is the 5G Use Case?

Some things do not change. Consider the business model debates we once had about 4G and 3G, in relation to 5G. Most proponents said those new platforms (and 5G) would enable creation of new services. The revisionist view was that the new networks mostly would lower the cost per bit of supplying mobile data access.

Sometimes apparently-contradictory explanations can both be correct. Both 3G and 4G were able to supply lower cost per bit data access. But it also is the case that some new use cases did develop, for 3G and 4G, and presumably also will happen with 5G.

And there likely will be a progression, in that regard. If you remember 3G, you will recall that the “new apps” did not develop for some time. Mobile email access (BlackBerry) might seem a rather trivial matter today, but it drove a huge change in behavior and revenue in the 3G era, as did mobile web access.  

The same might be said about 4G, which eventually lead to massive use of streaming video, as well as tethering.

The immediate use case was in fact  “faster internet access,” even if mobile video was the new use case enabled by the faster access.  

For 5G, the same process is likely to unfold: faster internet access will be the immediate new capability customers use. The one immediate new use case will be fixed wireless, built on the 5G infrastructure, to be a full substitute for fixed access provided by cabled networks.

One might argue that represents a break from past practice (fixed wireless is a “new app or use case”). Or, one might argue fixed wireless is more an instance of “faster access” (compared to either digital subscriber line or mobile access) and hence more in keeping with past developments.

The larger point is that, initially, faster access (and lower cost per bit) will be the use case and business value.

Only later will entirely-new use cases (connected car, ultra-low-latency use cases, massive machine-to-machine apps) develop.

So it is a false dichotomy to position 5G either as a “lower cost per bit” value instead of a “platform for new apps” value. As has been the case with 3G and 4G, 5G will represent both sets of values.

As lower cost per bit has been a feature of each next generation mobile platform, and arguably also the key to enabling use of internet web, app and streaming use cases, 5G will do the same.

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