Hockey great Wayne Gretzky is famous for saying the key to his success is that he “skates to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Something like that insight, though hard to apply to communications and internet regulation, is worth keeping in mind.
Consider universal service and rural broadband, always tough challenges. Half a century ago, rural broadband was considered a matter of subsidizing fixed network service. In recent decades, that concept was expanded, in some cases, to allow some use of support for mobile access. In principle, support for cable TV operators who supply voice and internet access is conceptually possible.
And more change is coming. In the 5G era, it is possible that mobile networks and platforms will be able to match fixed network performance. Though always more difficult in rural areas than in urban areas, this is not science fiction.
On top of that, low earth orbit satellite constellations, or even Google’s Loon service, based on use of balloons, might be in place to provide rural internet access across the rural United States.
Since every public purpose and policy necessarily creates private “winners and losers,” it is reasonable enough to predict that, over time, the ways we can supply rural communications will grow.
That is going to help some ISPs, and hurt others. The larger point is that policy, though based on present data and trends, still must take account of huge coming changes in supply. The admonition to “do no harm” also makes sense.
Despite concerns in some quarters, competition to supply internet access actually stands to grow, not decrease. We need to keep open the freedom of suppliers to skate to where the puck is going to be.
The point is that our experience with voice might not be an outlier. With much-better 5G platforms coming, we are likely to see mobile substitution expand from voice to internet access as well, as many see a shift from fixed video to mobile video entertainment as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment