Mobile operator service revenue will peak in 2021 at US$881 billion, just three percent above the 2018 forecast levels, according to Strategy Analytics. That forecast mostly reflects the end of robust revenue growth in developing markets, as developed markets have been mature for several years, at least.
That means forecasts of 5G revenue are substantially meaningless, as most of the revenue will simply represent a shifting of revenue from a “4G” account to a “5G” account, at least initially.
Eventually, new revenue sources (it is hoped) will emerge. Mobile-provided fixed wireless and internet of things will contribute about 10 percent of total mobile operator revenue globally (a higher percentage in the relatively few countries where IoT revenue is significant) in 2023, for example.
But the larger point is that 5G is launching in a context where global mobile account growth is slowing, and will eventually nearly halt, limiting the amount of revenue that can be earned from internet access subscriptions.
There will be nine billion user-linked subscriptions to mobile services by 2023, up from 7.7 billion today according to Strategy Analytics.
That substitution of 5G accounts for 4G accounts is the reason 5G revenue hopes must be pinned on discovery and creation of brand-new revenue sources.
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