To the extent that small cells are about capacity, rather than coverage, small cell growth reflects enterprise, service provider and residential demand for bandwidth.
Deployments of 5G or multimode small cells will cross the one million mark in 2020 and will rise steeply after that to reach 5.2 million in 2025, or 62 percent of total deployments that year, according to a survey conducted for the Small Cell Forum.
In 2015, 43 percent of small cells were deployed in non-dense environments to plug coverage or capacity gaps, while only 23 percent were in dense or hyper-dense environments.
By 2025, 78 percent of new deployments will be in dense or hyper-dense environments, and only four percent in non-dense areas. The number of cells deployed in hyper-dense networks will increase at a 74 percent compound annual rate of growth to 2025.
Until 2020, 4G Long Term Evolution sites will drive deployment, to be overtaken by 5G sites afterwards. The total installed base of 5G or multimode small cells in 2025 is predicted to be 13.1 million, over 33 percent of the installed base in 2025.
The installed base (cumulative deployments minus decommissions and replacements) will reach 70.2 million in 2025. About 55 percent of those will be commercial, enterprise or service provider deployments, while the balance will be for residential use.
Of the non-residential installed base, 74 percent will be in the enterprise space. The non-residential installed base will grow at a 50-percent compound annual rate of growth to 2025.
Early small cell deployments have been dominated by indoor systems (95 percent in 2015) but while indoor environments will remain the most common for densification, by 2025 the percentage of new cells deployed outdoors will rise to 28 percent, growing at a 62 percent CAGR.
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