By some estimates, U.S. fixed network internet access already has peaked. Some might say that is a statistical artifact caused by the 2008 Great Recession. Indeed, other estimates show steady growth of internet access accounts. But all observers agree that growth rates are slowing.
By some forecasts, telco share of market peaked about 2013, and has dropped since then, even if the overall market has grown. The next big challenge will come in the 5G era, as wireless and mobile alternatives will begin to erode the fixed market, as mobile voice displaced fixed network voice.
It is a subtle matter, but since internet access is purchased by consumers and businesses, some of the growth actually is business use growth, and not necessarily consumer demand. That complicates the effort to determine whether consumer fixed network internet access actually is growing.
So the big issue is how much share mobile substitutes for fixed internet access can take from fixed networks, especially when sold by tier-one service providers with the marketing muscle to drive adoption.
Given the growing role of the internet in most industries and life activities, it might seem curious that take rates for fixed network internet access have declined from 2008 levels.
It might be hard to think about internet access as a legacy service, but that is what it has become.
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