Markets that change only at the margin are highly susceptible to disruptions: changes in consumer behavior; changes in supplier cost structures; new market entrants; major consolidation or regulatory policies that change the business model.
In the U.S. mobile market, that can be seen in the attack T-Mobile US launched. Essentially, since the market is almost a zero sum game, total market change (accounts or gross revenue) has been driven by T-Mobile US alone. In other words, net additions in the market have been reaped almost completely by T-Mobile US market share gains.
But that all could change again as Charter Communications and Comcast enter the U.S. mobile market. Many will argue that those two firms will gain customer accounts only at the margin.
But that is the point. In a market that already changes “at the margin,” net account growth for the legacy providers might well end, across the board, including the prospect of net customer losses even for T-Mobile US, which had been gaining accounts.
In the U.S. market, as in many other developed nation markets, there either is no more growth happening, or likely to occur soon.
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