Internet of things connectivity might take any number of forms, using a variety of protocols and networks using a mix of unlicensed and licensed spectrum. It is easy to think the eventual winners will have the "best" technology. That might not happen.
Quite often, when important new technologies are developing, the "best" technology does not win the commercial race. There are lots of reasons, but value in such situations includes many considerations other than a narrow evaluation of technology.
Ecosystem economics, fit with existing business processes and business models, supplier stability, "go to market" advantages, capital reserves and lots of other practical deployment issues will tend to tip the scale, when the time comes for volume deployment.
Generally speaking, networking platforms and protocols tend to win out, in the market, because they get scale. When there are multiple competing platforms, it often is not the “first” or “earliest” contenders, but the later alternatives with scale that take most of the share.
Those of you with long memories might recall that was the case for computer operating systems, was the case for competing 4G platforms and arguably 3G before that. In the smartphone area, the eventual winners were not “first” on the scene.
So it comes as no surprise that analysts at Maravedis believe the mobile networks using licensed spectrum eventually will represent most of the internet of things connections, globally.
In the area of specialized networks using unlicensed spectrum, Maravedis believes Wi-SUN platforms for utility networks be quite important, as well. In the early going, platforms often compete based on the perceived value of specifications. Long term, commercial scale typically decides the issue.
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