The mobile business historically has been based on spectrum scarcity, as without licenses, no contestant could be in the facilities part of the business. Based on licenses held in the traditional bands, and the number of accounts to support, Verizon has the greatest need for additional spectrum (though small cells are a functional substitute).
Eventually, that could change, and for reasons beyond any future Verizon acquisition of additional spectrum.
With the caveat that millimeter wave spectrum assets have the potential to dramatically affect the business value of spectrum (licensed and unlicensed), it remains easy to see that Dish Network is the wild card.
Present mobile licensed spectrum holdings of the largest four mobile suppliers, plus Dish Network spectrum, are based on::
- Low Band: 600 MHz, 700 MHz and Cellular/SMR
- Mid Band: PCS, AWS-1/2/3/4
- High Band: WCS (2.3 GHz), EBS/BRS (2.5 GHz)
Millimeter wave spectrum has the potential to rearrange spectrum holdings--and value--by an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude, over a decade or so. One might argue that spectrum scarcity is going to substantially end, as more millimeter wave assets are commercialized, as spectrum sharing and lots of new unlicensed spectrum are added in the U.S. market.
Still, in the traditional lower band frequencies, it is Dish Network that potentially could rearrange spectrum holdings, assuming those assets are acquired or deployed on behalf of any of the leading four mobile service providers.
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