75% Fall in Mobile Data Costs Across Developing World? Yes.

source: Analysys Mason

Mobile Internet access is vital for new users, because most new users globally will gain access to the Internet using a mobile device. Still, mobile Internet access is expensive in developing and lesser-developed nations, compared to prices paid in developed nations.

By 2020, matters could be quite different, in any number of countries, including India.

Average prices for mobile data could drop 400 percent, while the percent of GNI per person paid to use mobile data could drop 600 percent, according to the World Bank.

Analysys Mason says mobile data tariffs need to be reduced 75 percent to bring costs in line with developed nation levels.

Perhaps nobody expects a 75-percent fall in tariffs over the next couple of years.

Longer term, it is hard to bet against such an outcome.

Fixed network Internet access prices in the developing world--arguably a much-tougher proposition, still have been falling towards developed country levels, on a percent of GNI basis.

Trends in mobile data are more important, since that is the way most people will gain access. India’s data tariffs for 1 GB of usage represent 2.6 percent of gross national income per capita

Developed country levels are 0.4 to 0.5 percent GNI per capita.

“Our analysis concludes that a 75 percent cut in data tariffs (average revenue per GB of Rs 57) alone could increase the user base to 645-667 million SIMs, and the level of monthly data usage to around 4.2-4.3 GB per SIM in 2019-20,” said Analysys Mason.

Don’t bet against such levels being reached.