It is too early to say for certain how mobile service provider attitudes about licensed spectrum will change as more options are made available for spectrum sharing of licensed and unlicensed spectrum. It seems unlikely that mobile service providers will abandon their historic preference for licensed spectrum.
Few are likely to consider relying substantially on running their core services on unlicensed spectrum, because that surrenders control over quality of service and congestion control. On the other hand, there is growing reliance on use of unlicensed spectrum as a complement.
Wi-fi offload provides the clearest example. But spectrum aggregation that essentially bonds unlicensed spectrum to licensed assets is a new tool mobile operators will use. T-Mobile US already uses spectrum sharing on its 4G network, for example. AT&T and Verizon also licensed assisted access versions of such spectrum sharing.
On the other hand, it clearly makes sense for leading mobile operators in the U.S. market, for example, to experiment with spectrum sharing using the new Citizens Broadband Radio Service, in the months leading up to actual spectrum auctions this summer.
At the moment, service providers are only allowed to use CBRS spectrum in “best effort” unlicensed mode, but tests will confirm the extent to which the sharing works. That, in turn, could shape appetite for bidding on CBRS priority access licenses.
To be sure, U.S. mobile operators have higher incentives than do mobile operators in many other countries to look at spectrum sharing. Compared to many other countries, the number of subscribers per megaHertz of bandwidth is significantly higher in the U.S. market.
We are at least half a year away from knowing which entities will consider PAL licenses important. By not bidding, we also will know which firms believe CBRS is not a major tool to be used, or that unlicensed CBRS spectrum is adequate for their business purposes.
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