By about 2023, there could be nearly 4.5 million U.S. 5G fixed wireless connections in service. That might represent about the same percentage of U.S. fixed network internet access accounts, in that year. That is probably not going to be as important as the number of accounts that are shifted from one provider to another, which in principle could represent a swing of as much as nine points in won or lost market share in the fixed network internet access market.
The impact would be especially important if the net swing in accounts is nearly all from cable TV provider share to telco share. If U.S. cable companies now have 66 percent of the installed base of accounts, and telcos about 33 percent, then a net swing of nine share points would have cable at about 61 percent share, while telcos rise to 38 percent.
Consumers in the United States and United Kingdom might have significant appetite for fixed wireless internet access, according to a survey conducted on behalf of CCS Insight.
Respondents listed price, performance and quick installation as the leading factors that might encourage them to sign up to 5G home broadband.
We should be cautious about 5G fixed wireless forecasts in part because so many early estimates seem to include both infrastructure products to enable 5G fixed wireless as well as service subscriptions. That noted, it is possible that fixed wireless service revenues might approach 10 percent of total 5G service revenues, by perhaps 2029.
Other forecasts suggest there could be about 13 million 5G fixed wireless accounts in service by about 2024.
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