Tuesday, October 8, 2019

5G Capex Will be Deliberate

There are any number of reasons why most mobile operators are going to take a deliberate approach to introducing 5G networks. For most mobile service providers, it is unclear whether there is much direct revenue upside from consumer 5G services, though there could well be important indirect benefits from customer acquisition growth, churn reduction, capacity reinforcement and so forth. 

If so, it makes sense to deploy 5G in a controlled manner. To the extent that new enterprise use cases develop, that is likely to take some time as well. 

If 5G builds on 4G, it is rational to make 4G investments that boost performance now, while creating infrastructure to support 5G. That is especially true in markets where consumer demand can be met using 4G network features, and where congestion can be alleviated using 4G small cells, as an alternative to overlaying 5G small cells or macrocells. 

By now, it is recognized that 5G can be deployed, and arguably should be deployed, within existing capital investment budgets, even if it once was feared infrastructure costs would balloon. That graduated approach necessarily means 5G investment is phased. 



Personally, it is hard to see how 5G capex is going to differ much from 4G levels, really. The business model nearly everywhere is tough enough that big increases in capex are not possible. 

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