Saturday, October 26, 2019

Many Proposed 5G Use Cases Will Not Flourish Until 6G

History suggests we might well be wrong about what new use cases will develop in the 5G era, as much of what operators expected for 3G and 4G similarly failed to develop as expected. Mobile operators expected that video calling and movie downloading would be big killer apps for 3G. That did not happen until 4G, but even then, streaming replaced downloading as the use mode for entertainment video.

In fact, some would argue the killer app for 3G was mobile access to email (remember BlackBerry). Others imagined 3G mobile phones would coordinate with traffic cameras to suggest the best routes for drivers to take, while 3G camera phones allowed photos to be sent websites. Music and video streaming were other potential killer apps that became widespread realities in the 4G era, however, not in the 3G era.

Indeed, some even argued that consumers did not need the bandwidth 3G would provide. That arguably was not claimed as the 4G era approached.

As 4G was becoming a reality, some argued 4G killer apps might include live mobile video, mobile gaming, cloud-based apps, navigation with augmented reality or telemedicine might develop as killer apps. Several of those predictions arguably proved correct, especially the usefulness of cloud apps of all sorts.

Apps expected for 3G actually appeared in 4G, it is safe to say. And virtually nobody seems to have anticipated apps such as Uber. Researchers at Nokia Bell Labs broadly identify eras of value enabled by mobility.

Future of communications: Nokia Bell Labs perspective
Some argue 5G is absolutely needed, while others might argue 5G is not necessary. Others might point out 5G advantages that ultimately will be important, even if it might be easy to dismiss at the moment. If you can recall, virtually nobody argued that we did not need 4G, when 3G was the current generation of mobile networks.

As it turned out, 3G was not adequate to support many of the applications developers had hoped to be able to create and commercialize. Speed was the most-glaring deficiency, but some argue security and latency also were issues 4G could address.

Early arguments for 4G actually sound similar to the argument for 5G in one respect: speed. On 3G networks, web browsing and video were painful experiences, which is why offload to Wi-Fi became so common.

source: IEEE

“Everything” except voice, texting and picture taking would happen faster, it was said. That also is among the primary reasons 5G is touted as well.

But even in the shift to 4G, some argued consumers did not need 4G. One hears that quite a lot with respect to 5G as well, but for different reasons. Network availability and coverage are reasons for waiting, many will argue.

That is not the same as arguing 5G does not offer experience advantages, for some applications and use cases, merely that initial coverage will be spotty. Also, there are different justifications for consumer users than for network suppliers.

The ability to support advanced applications, device density and lower cost per bit are advantages for network operators. The 4G network does not have the ability to support dense networks of sensors, for example, ultra-low latency or ultra-high bandwidth apps. As a practical matter, even when those attributes are not important for many use cases, the cost of supplying mobile data is a real issue, as consumers keep demanding use of more data, but are unwilling to pay substantially more.

Lower cost per bit is especially important for mobile service providers, given the expected growth of usage. Looked at only from the perspective of the network platform, mobile operators will have to supply ever-more bandwidth to consumers with relatively-fixed ability to pay.

source: Keith Malinson

There are other network platform advantages. The 4G network was not inherently designed to be virtualized; the 5G network core will do so, with important potential savings in capital investment and operating cost. In principle, 5G will allow--based on growing support of open source approaches--a mix and match strategy for radio access networks. That will increase competition, and therefore lead to lower costs for RAN investments.

The larger point might be that many proposed exotic and new applications envisioned for 5G might not flourish and become commonplace until 6G. That broadly has been the case for 3G and 4G. Some proposed 3G apps did not become widely possible until 4G. Some proposed 4G use cases might not become routine until 5G is firmly in place. And the exotic 5G apps will often become commonplace only in 6G or later.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Is Sora an "iPhone Moment?"

Sora is OpenAI’s new cutting-edge and possibly disruptive AI model that can generate realistic videos based on textual descriptions.  Perhap...