ABI Research predicts that public safety LTE will hit the mainstream markets after 2020 as trials and deployments gain momentum across the world. Hardware revenue is expected to grow by 30 percent annually, reaching $540 million in 2025.
The United States, United Kingdom and South Korea will host the world’s first three operational public safety LTE networks by the end of 2017 or early 2018. Many countries will likely follow suit, either through a dedicated public safety LTE network or a hosted or shared infrastructure model.
As a forecast made in 2015 might accurately predict, FirstNet’s value to AT&T, whih will build the network, will lie in the value of using the 20 MHz of 700-MHz Long Term Evolution spectrum, not necessarily the revenues the network will produce.
Assume the FirstNet service represents 30 percent of all public safety LTE revenues by 2025 or so. That would mean gross revenue would be about $162 million. Or assume FirstNet represents half of all global revenue for such networks. In that case, FirstNet generates about $270 million annually.
That is not a business big enough to interest AT&T. So the business case will be built on use of spectrum, not commercial revenue upside.
source: The Performance Institute
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