Intel CEO Brian Krzanich has argued that if Moore’s Law applied to Volkswagens, a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle had advanced at the pace of Moore’s law over the past 34 years, “would be able to go with that car 300,000 miles per hour. You would get two million miles per gallon of gas, and all that for the mere cost of four cents.”
Physical objects other than computer chips tend not to change that fast, obviously. Still, the principal is apt. Comcast has, for example, been able to increase consumer internet access speeds at Moore’s Law rates. And even where consumer internet access prices have increased, the spending is for products that offer speeds two orders of magnitude faster than what could be bought in the past.
It is helpful to remember some historical facts whenever a regulatory policy is changed in a way that critics argue “will lead to higher prices.”
And that lesson is that internet access prices decline over time. That seems to be the case for fixed or mobile internet access, and certainly has been true for transport prices. Sometimes observers focus only on retail prices, not consumption. That is important, as users tend to consume more data over time, buying tiers of service that are faster, and often have higher retail prices.
In other words, in addition to retail price declines, quality of service keeps improving (looking only at speed) while volumes consumed keep climbing as well. So cost per megabyte or cost per gigabyte matter. Now is it crazy to argue that prices are going to fall further, as much more supply, and more-efficient platforms are introduced.
Such price changes are clear in both consumer and business realms, as well. Consider T1 prices, DS3 prices or Ethernet prices.
No comments:
Post a Comment