India is on track to surpass half a billion mobile subscribers by the end of the year, according to a new GSMA Intelligence study. By 2020, India will account for almost half of all the subscriber growth expected in the Asia Pacific region.
The Mobile Economy: India 2015 notes that 13 percent of the world’s mobile subscribers reside in India. At the end of 2014, India’s mobile subscriber penetration rate was about 36 percent of the population, compared to a 50 percent global average.
But that is going to change, fast.
The subscriber penetration rate in India is forecast to reach 54 per cent by 2020 as many millions more are connected by mobile.
India had 453 million unique mobile subscribers at the end of 2014, but is forecast to surpass 500 million by the end of 2015 and add a further 250 million subscribers by 2020 to reach 734 million.
And though network architectures, modulation techniques and radio efficiencies will help, India’s mobile operators will need access to more spectrum to handle the new load, the GSMA argues.
India’s mobile operators still have access to only a fraction of the spectrum that has been identified globally for mobile services, GSMA argues.
GSMA’s research suggests that, on average, a total of 1600 MHz to 1800 MHz should be identified for mobile services.
“Unlicensed spectrum is not an adequate substitute, as it creates an uneven playing field and can quickly become congested, leading to interference between services,” GSMA argues. That is a predictable mobile industry argument.
The thesis is not without foundation, but also is congruent with the industry’s business model. Others might argue we have not yet explored the degree to which license-exempt spectrum can provide “carrier grade” service, and to what extent.
Still, by 2020, more than half a billion mobile connections in India will be running on mobile broadband networks. The bigger issue, beyond the number of users, is the intensity of capacity demand on networks supporting smartphones.
Video will be key, according to Cisco. Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 10-fold between 2014 and 2019, for example.
Mobile data traffic will grow at a 57 percent compound annual growth rate between 2014 and 2019, Cisco predicts.
Devices also matter. A single smartphone can generate as much traffic as 37 basic-feature phones; a tablet as much traffic as 94 basic-feature phones; and a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 119 basic-feature phones.
For such reasons--more subscribers, using more bandwidth intensive apps, on faster networks--mobile operators will need additional spectrum, especially in the 2100 MHz band, GSMA argues.
In India, freeing up 700 MHz band for mobile services also is necessary. This low-frequency spectrum, structured in line with the Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) band plan, can enable cost-effective coverage of large geographic areas, so will play an important role in extending mobile broadband coverage.
Contrary to most markets, in India this band is not occupied by broadcasting and can therefore be made available for mobile usage relatively quickly.
A key constraint for operators is that reserve prices in India have historically been set on the high side, GSMA argues. Lower spectrum prices will mean lower retail prices for Internet access users.
In India, consumer taxes also are 23.3 percent of the total cost of mobile ownership, while mobile-specific taxes account for 10.3 percent of the total cost of mobile ownership. Lower taxes also would improve affordability, GSMA argues.
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