Keep all spectrum matters in perspective, as they are part of a wider pattern of change across the global communications and content ecosystems. Simply put, virtually all key developments within either ecosystem, over the past few decades, have aimed to--or have had the unintended effect--of reducing every source of traditional advantage within each of the ecosystems.
That is true for new licensed and license-exempt spectrum allocations, and especially true of all proposals for spectrum sharing, in any of its forms.
Whatever else you may wish to note about the big trends in telecom, content and communications over the past couple of decades, the emergence of the Internet, and IP-based applications, has to be deemed the single most important development.
When virtually all useful application can be used by any person or machine, on any available network, that necessarily reduces any advantage “network ownership” used to confer. That does not mean ownership of assets is meaningless. It matters. It simply doesn’t matter as much as it has, in the past.
That state of affairs also means the cost of getting into any part of the communications or content business, other than simple access, has changed. Simply, no provider “needs” to build or operate its own network to get into business. That is why owners of access network assets pay so much attention is paid to “over the top” apps and services.
Not far behind, though, is the emergence of mobility as a core access platform. There are currently almost seven billion mobile phone subscriptions globally, or one for every person on Earth.
So dominant has mobility become that most new Internet infrastructure platforms assume the mobile operators are the “access providers,” while all the other platforms are backhaul and transport providers.
Whether we are talking about new constellations of low earth orbit satellites, fleets of balloons or unmanned aerial vehicles, TV white spaces or Wi-Fi, the primary (or exclusive) business arrangement will entail new backhaul and transport connections that use mobile or Wi-Fi as the retail connection.
In a few instances, high-power satellites are envisioned as an actual retail solution, and TV white spaces or fixed wireless in general can function either as backhaul or access, even if backhaul is the primary value.
Arguably just as important are the changes in relative advantage possessed by various participants in the ecosystem, the inevitable and planned result of all efforts to stimulate competition.
It is perhaps obvious, but the intended outcome for all major initiatives to stimulate competition is a loss of market share by incumbents, and growing market share by attackers. And since pro-competitive policies are embedded with virtually all policy initiatives, it is logical to predict that incumbent advantages are being whittled away, over time, virtually everywhere.
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