Though it is hard to clearly separate the value of mobile spectrum from the value of mobile operations (service providers not able to deploy spectrum commercially will lose it), rights to use spectrum repreent major portions of the market value of every facilities-based mobile service provider. The only issue is how much value, and what percentage of value, rights to use spectrum represent.
In all, AT&T now holds spectrum licenses worth more than $91 billion, estimates Goldman Sachs analyst Brett Feldman. He also estimates the value of Verizon's spectrum at $79.4 billion.
The current equity value of all AT&T stock is $176.5 billion, implying that spectrum alone represents 51.6 percent of AT&T’s total equity value.
Verizon’s market value is $207.9 billion, implying that Verizon’s spectrum represents 38 percent of total valuation.
Feldman estimates that the U.S. mobile industry spectrum, plus Dish Network’s spectrum, represents $368 billion in value.
All that could change dramatically in the future, though, as shared spectrum, unlicensed spectrum and dynamic spectrum alternatives are made possible. All those methods could reduce the amount of licensed spectrum mobile service providers have to buy or reduce the market value of current holdings.
To be sure, many proponents of unlicensed spectrum believe releasing much more spectrum in that way will reduce the scarcity value of licensed spectrum held by mobile service providers.
Dish Network owns rights to use spectrum worth perhaps $50 billion, if actually deployed, and virtually nothing if Dish Network does not put the spectrum into commercial use, or sell the rights to some other company able to launch commercial services.
T-Mobile US might own about $55 billion worth of spectrum, while Sprint owns more than $67 billion worth of spectrum, according to Goldman Sachs.
No comments:
Post a Comment