An Era is About to Pass: Many Will Stop Worrying About Google

The business environment changes fast these days. Consider any element of business strategy involving Google.

To the extent Google is a key competitor for Internet access, Internet apps, mobile operating systems, mobile and untethered devices, e-commerce or advertising, Google's days as a terrifying presence might be coming to an end.

If history and precedent matter, then Google has nearly reached a watershed moment.

The evidence comes from what happened to Microsoft when it faced its own antitrust troubles in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Microsoft ruled computing in the mid 1990s. By 2010, it was an also-ran. All that happened despite the fact that Microsoft escaped being broken up, and also avoided crippling fines.

Google now faces the same potential problems (forced divestiture and huge fines). Some day, when the case has run its course, Google is likely to be fined a relatively small amount, and will have avoided any danger of a forced breakup of the company.

But Google’s momentum will have been halted. And if precedent serves as guide, Google never again will “lead” computing markets. What happened inside Google is likely to be akin to what happened inside Microsoft when it also faced antitrust action by the European Union competition authorities.

New products and potential business partnerships had to go through legal review, which took lots of time and discouraged employees from pursuing certain kinds of innovations. Many forms of promotion or bundling will be discouraged or limited.

Development teams will have to spend more time on legal activities than making better products. Competitor lawsuits might multiply as well. Potential partners will be scared off.

So a certain timidity will set in.