In Any Market, You Can Identify Incumbents by Their Frequency Holdings, Unless...

Generally speaking, you can tell which mobile service providers were incumbents, which are newer entrants by looking at their spectrum allotments in terms of frequency. The big exception to that rule are markets where new entrants acquire the assets of former incumbents.

In other words, find mobile service providers with lots of 800 MHz and 900 MHz spectrum and you generally find the contestants that have been in the market since first generation or second generation networks were the standard.

Conversely, mobile service providers with lots of spectrum around 2 GHz are those coming to market first with third generation networks.

In the United Kingdom, for example, BT, which is acquiring EE, will have mostly spectrum in the 1.8 GHz to 2.6 GHz bands.

Generally speaking, that means incumbents have the advantage of signals better suited for coverage, while newer entrants have spectrum better suited for capacity. That means service providers with 2 GHz and higher spectrum have greater incentive to deploy small cells and other network density technologies and platforms.

source: European Communications Office and Light Reading  

In India, the market leaders at 900 MHz frequencies arguably are the service providers in the market the longest, while Reliance Communications, arguably the youngest of the top-four suppliers, has the least amount of 900 MHz spectrum.

At the same time, there are huge potential changes in 3G market share in 2015, with Bharti Airtel growing to 18 percent share, up from three percent in 2011.

Reliance Communications, on the other hand, might lose 3G share, dropping from the 2011 level of 39 percent to 15 percent. Tata Teleservices, likewise might drop from the 2011 level of 30 percent to 12 percent in 2015.

Vodafone might grow its share of 3G accounts from two percent up to about 13 percent; Idea Cellular climbing from about two percent to 11 percent.

In other words, some suppliers, particularly Tata and Reliance, will have huge incentives to emphasize 4G, as their respective positions in 3G are declining.

The sums spent on 900-MHz spectrum with the better coverage capabilities (signal propagation distance) tell the story: Reliance, the fourth largest carrier,  spent an order of magnitude (10 times) less on 900 MHz spectrum than the three bigger companies more reliant on 900 MHz spectrum.

And 900 MHz is synonymous with 3G, as 1800 is synonymous with 4G.

“We believe the future is 4G and not 2G and 3G,” said Gurdeep Singh, chief executive of consumer business at Reliance Communications, India's number four mobile operator.

Reliance holds less 800 MHz and 900 MHz spectrum than its competitors. By definition, that means less capacity for 2G and 3G services.