One informal test of new product relevance at a tier-one connectivity service provider such as AT&T or Verizon is that a new product has to offer potential revenue of at least $1 billion a year to be worth pursuing.
By that informal test fixed wireless already is rapidly approaching that point at Verizon and already has surpassed the threshold at T-Mobile.
In February 2023 Verizon claimed 1.5 million fixed wireless subscriptions, with an average annual revenue contribution of about $500 per account (about $42 per month, per account). That implies $750,000 in revenues.
T-Mobile reported some 2.6 million fixed wireless accounts. Assuming the same monthly revenue, that implies T-Mobile is generating $1.3 billion annually from fixed wireless services.
Neither of those firms, nor AT&T, Comcast or Charter Communications yet report revenue or subscriptions for new services from internet of things connections, edge computing or private networks. That suggests revenue for those products is not close to $1 billion per year in new revenue.
Granted, consumer 5G subscriptions are a "new product." But as each new 5G account mostly cannibalizes and replaces an existing 4G subscription, 5G is properly viewed as the upgraded replacement for an existing service, and not a "new service or product."
Fixed wireless might be properly viewed as a new service because it allows T-Mobile to enter a business--home broadband--in which it has had zero percent market share. Fixed wireless also is a new service for Verizon in allowing it to provide home broadband to perhaps 80 percent of U.S. homes where Verizon has no fixed network.
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