6G Is Not a "Race"

Many observers argue that 6G mobile networks are a “race,” as was claimed for 5G as well. That arguably is true from the standpoint of a “race” between infrastructure providers to sell networks. We can measure market share for mobile infra sold by Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, for example. 

The other claimed “race” asserts that nations deploying 6G early gain an advantage over countries that deploy a bit later. That second sense of “a race” makes less sense. 6G, as was 5G and 4G before it, will be deployed earliest in countries that already are developed, in terms of computing and communications usage; economic productivity and output. 

In other words, early 5G and 6G is a correlation with already-advanced computing, communications and economic output. High degrees of wealth, income and economic activity are correlated with early 5G deployment. It will be the same with 6G. 

Mobile Generation Key Performance Indicators

KPIs	4G	5G	6G
Peak data rate /device	1 Gbps	10 Gbps	1 Tbps
latency	100 ms	1 ms	0.1 ms
Max. spectral efficiency	15 bps/Hz	30 bps/Hz	100 bps/Hz
Energy efficiency	< 1000x relative to 5G	1000x relative to 4G	>10x relative to 5G
Connection density	2000 devices / km2	1millon devices /km2	>10millon devices/km2
Coverage percent	< 70 %	80 %	>99 %
Positioning precision	Meters precision (50 m)	Meters precision (20 m)	Centimeter precision
End-to-end reliability	99.9 %	99.999 %	99.9999 %
Receiver sensitivity	Around −100dBm	Around −120dBm	< −130dBm
Mobility support	350 km/h	500 km/h	≥1000 km/h
Satellite integration	No	No	Fully
AI	No	Partial	Fully
Autonomous vehicle	No	Partial	Fully
Extended Reality	No	Partial	Fully
Haptic Communication	No	Partial	Fully
THz communication	No	limited	Widely
Service level	Video	VR, AR	Tactile
Architecture	MIMO	Massive MIMO	Intelligent surface
Max. frequency	6 GHz	90 GHz	10 THz

source: Science Direct

In other words, early deployment of 5G or 6G does not actually provide quantifiable advantages where it comes to economic growth. That growth already exists. 

The converse might be argued: were a developed or developing nation to refuse to deploy the next G network--something that never has happened--we might see an eventual degradation of economic activity.

We cannot test the thesis because it never has happened. 

That is not to deny the new “lead” applications or “new” use cases that have developed with each next-generation mobile network. But we might also claim that for each 10X increase in fixed network home broadband as well.

Over time, new use cases emerge; new apps are possible. Over time, as computing, storage and communication costs fall, while capabilities increase, developers and entrepreneurs are able to create new use cases and products. In that broad sense, yes, it does matter that networks and computing capabilities advance. 

But such developments always happen in concrete circumstances, with existing capabilities already in place: human capital, rule of law, capital availability, geography, infrastructure and other network effects. 

A next-generation network--in and of itself--does not create new possibilities if the other foundations are not already present.