6G Hype is to be Expected

Hype about each mobile next-generation network has been happening since the time of 3G, and for practical reasons. Operators must convince regulators to release more spectrum. Infrastructure providers have to convince operators to buy the new networks. And investors must be convinced there is revenue upside.

But it also would be fair to question how much of the hyped and hoped-for advancements actually happened in each generation. Progress has occurred; just not as much as the hype suggested.

Aside from faster internet access, 3G networks were touted as creating a platform for development of new end user experiences, use cases and innovative new applications. We forget it now, but 3G also was promoted as offering better audio quality for voice calls. Streaming video, audio and video calling also were touted. 

In many cases, the most widely-used new use case was mobile email, which drove the popularity of the BlackBerry by Research in Motion. Over the life of 3G, that use case diminished in importance, as mobile web browsing supplanted email access as the killer use case. 

Some of us might say it was turn-by-turn navigation that was the killer use case, as it eliminated the need to own and use dedicated GPS devices and services. 

Proponents always emphasized other developments, such as machine-to-machine communications or virtual reality, but VR did not flourish. 

Turn to 4G and many of the same “new use cases” were touted. Mobile video and audio streaming really was not a great experience using 3G networks, but 4G succeeded, in that regard. 

4G also made mobile web browsing more like the desktop experience, while dedicated apps emerged to replace browsing as a preferred interface. Mobile transaction capabilities, including payment, also seemed more usable on 4G networks. 

Location app usefulness also arguably improved on 4G networks. Ride sharing might be considered among the top new use cases produced during the 4G era. Propelled by work- and learn-from-home policies during the Covid pandemic, video calling and conferencing finally emerged as a mainstream activity on smartphones. 

Social media also exploded in the 4G era. 

Virtual reality or other immersive experiences were once again touted for 4G, but mostly did not develop. 

If you look at many depictions of what 5G might bring, you see the same insistence on new use cases, apps and value. Some might say the more futuristic predictions are 5G support for autonomous vehicles, extended reality, internet of things, “smart” cities, remote health care or industrial automation. 

source: Dell 

We can safely argue that most of these use cases will not flourish during the 5G era, just as most hoped-for use cases did not emerge in the 3G and 4G eras, either. That is not to say progress is impossible. It is only to suggest that mass scale adoption of most of these use cases might not happen. 

Comparing claims about mobile enablement to what has happened on fixed networks, it would be fair to note that video calling, video conferencing, streaming content consumption and social media have blossomed over the past several years.

How much we can attribute those trends to lower latency, faster speeds, more-powerful devices, cloud computing, Moore’s Law cost reductions and entrepreneurial effort plus investment is debatable. All played a part. 

The point is that much of the hype about next-generation mobile networks should probably be viewed in the same context as progress on home broadband networks that boosted typical speeds from 10 Mbps to 100 Mbps to 1,000 Mbps. When bandwidth stops being a constraint, apps are developed to match. 

Proponents of each next-generation mobile network are “required” to hype the next generation of networks in part to get governments to allocate them more spectrum, create demand for new infrastructure and increase investment appetite. 

So expect continued hype about each next generation mobile platform.