Global internet of things revenues will be about $906 billion in 2025, with connectivity accounting for less than five percent of total revenues, according to GSMA Intelligence. Mobile networks will earn less than that, as other networks will capture some connectivity share.
Applications, platforms and services are due to account for 67 percent of the overall market, while professional services will make up the remaining 28 percent.
This might be a strategic problem for observers hoping that the internet of things might become a big enough revenue source to replace other lost revenues. At least near term, it does not appear IoT connectivity represents enough revenue volume to matter.
One might make the same argument about edge computing revenues earned directly by connectivity providers. By 2025, various estimates of connectivity provider edge computing revenue put the global total between $1 billion and $4 billion.
Again, that is helpful, but does not move the revenue needle much, if one assumes the global industry has to generate about $400 billion in new revenue over the next 10 years.
Very few connectivity services have had the ability to drive core revenues. Fixed network voice, internet access and entertainment video, plus mobile subscriptions, voice and internet access have been the staples.
So far, none of the coming new services--IoT, edge computing, network slicing--seem to have upside big enough to affect the $400 billion revenue target.
Almost by definition, then, it will require something else for the global connectivity industry to replace $400 billion in existing revenue it will lose over the next 10 years.
The disquieting possibility exists that the industry might not be able to do so, and will simply shrink. That would be a disruptive shock to an industry that has grown for over a century.
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