Virtually all observers expect T-Mobile US to push ahead independently if the merger with Sprint fails. The only issue is what options Sprint will have, as it does not have the subscriber base or financial ability to compete with the other three carriers on a national basis.
Asset sales of spectrum are one expected result of a failed merger effort. A different strategy that would make Sprint a more-regional provider, focused in urban areas, also is possible. And, of course, Sprint again becomes an acquisition candidate for firms that have zero market share in mobility, as the HHI would not prove to be an issue.
Dish and at least a couple U.S. cable TV providers come to mind as potential acquirers, at some point.
Though the outcome of the T-Mobile US merger with Sprint remains in some doubt, recent history since 2011 has shown a pattern of regulator opposition to mergers between the top carriers. AT&T tried unsuccessfully to buy T-Mobile in 2011
Softbank, owner of Spring, tried to buy T-Mobile in 2014 and backed down because of regulator opposition. T-Mobile US considered buying Dish Network in 2015, primarily for its spectrum trove.
Sprint and T-Mobile first proposed merging in 2017.
Given that recent history, some of us were quite surprised that the U.S. Justice Department and Federal Communications Commission blessed the merger of T-Mobile and Sprint last year.
A key market concentration test used by the Department of Justice and most regulators, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, some of us believed that U.S. market concentration was already at levels that cause antitrust concerns to rise again, as they have since 2011 at the top of the U.S. mobile service provider market. The HHI impact is almost certainly among the main reasons for regulator opposition to the earlier proposed mergers.
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