This comparison of actual versus predicted fixed network telephone lines by the International Telecommunications Union illustrates the perils of forecasts. In a market not disrupted by new technology, and especially not a new technology of the “general purpose technology” variety, adoption of any popular technology might well take the shape of a normal “Bell curve.”
Which is to say, in the early going, there is a longish period of gestation and adoption, followed by an inflection point or “knee” where adoption rapidly increases. For many popular consumer electronics products and services, the inflection point tends to be at about 10 percent adoption.
That is the point at which the rate of adoption increases.
For fixed network voice lines, the predictions broke down around 2000. And you can guess why: that was when the internet and mobility started to emerge as viable product substitutes for fixed network voice lines.
Since about 2000, fixed network line growth has been negative--peaking globally about 2006, and account growth has been driven by mobile subscriptions.
The point is that, a decade from now, we might not be tracking “mobile subscriptions,” or at least not “human user” subscriptions, to show revenue growth. That would parallel an earlier evolution in the fixed network business, where counting “access lines” has become less useful as a predictor of total revenue. The more-relevant metrics are based on “units sold,” where units can be voice, internet access, video entertainment or mobile products.
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