Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Is AT&T Quarter Suggestive of Broader Change?

One might make a couple of observations about AT&T financial results. AT&T third quarter 2017 earnings were a little lighter than analysts had expected and lower than the same quarter a year ago.

But it might be worth noting that the results are suggestive of broader changes. Though it never is a good idea to extrapolate too much from a single quarter’s results, the numbers are suggestive of some broader trends. If one believes mobility is reaching--or already has reached--a product life cycle peak, then the pressure in the mobility segment makes sense.

If one believes that moving up the stack into applications is a necessary antidote to the coming decline of the mobility business, then even the slight dip in entertainment group operating revenue shows relative strength, compared to the other key revenue segments.

Mobile revenues were down about $800 million, year over year.

Entertainment segment revenues were off just slightly, about $100 million, year over year. Business Solutions revenue was off about $700 million, year over year.  

Operating revenue for Business Solutions of $17.1 billion was down four percent. Entertainment Group revenue of $12.65 billion was down 0.6 percent, while Consumer Mobility revenue of $7.75 billion was down 6.3 percent.

International operating revenue of  $2.1 billion was up 11.7 percent.

Some will seize on the impact of video cord cutting on the quarter's results, and that is part of the backdrop. Some of us would argue the coming Time Warner acquisition is precisely why that addition is necessary, as it moves AT&T significantly out of the distribution business and into the content ownership part of the ecosystem.

That will be seen as increasingly important, if the mobile business actually is about to cease driving revenue growth in the telecom business.

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