Very few of us likely comprehend just how big a bet 5G is going to prove to be. One has to reach back perhaps to 2G, and the beginnings of mass market use of mobile service, for analogies. Once upon a time, very few humans used mobile phones.
There was a simple reason: it was quite expensive. Back in 1987, a U.S. portable mobile phone cost $1500 or more (there were no handhelds). But that was a whole lot cheaper than what a phone cost in 1984, when devices might cost $4,000.
Monthly phone bill ran between $100 and $150, including a basic service charge and about 50 cents for each minute of usage.
The point is that few--if any--observers believed the market would be so large. In essence, the business problem for 2G was how big the market was for human use of mobile phones. That was not a problem for 3G or 4G, when demand could be assumed, and only the mix of features to drive demand was unknown.
In terms of human use, 5G will follow that model. Eventually, 4G users will be migrated to 5G, so “demand” is a relatively known figure. But that only deals with substitution effects. Of the three key buckets of use cases--enhanced mobile broadband; low latency services and internet of things--demand for the key new use cases (IoT and low latency services) is unknown.
In fact, some believe that most of the incremental new revenue to be generated by 5G will come precisely from IoT and low latency use cases, both unknown as to magnitude. In that sense, the industry will face new challenges not seen since 2G.
The last time that happened, many inside the industry were not yet born. Many now leading the industry were only beginning their careers. The point is that 5G will represent industry challenges not seen on this scale since the beginnings of the mobile industry.
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