For most people, 5G is just the next generation of mobile platforms. In fact, 5G arguably is the most-important gamble in telecom history, a test of whether big new markets can be created for services primarily purchased by enterprises and businesses, not human users.
That is a huge shift, as all prior generations were supported by services provided to humans. So
5G will be unlike any other generation of mobile service, as it will be the first mobile or telecom network generation whose new revenue upside primarily comes from new use cases where machines are the key “users.”
To the extent that one believes revenues to be generated by services sold to humans will flatten, 5G therefore will determine whether industry revenue grows or not.
That is because sources of value are changing. There is only so much value any internet access connection can provide, and therefore only so much a buyer will pay for that value. That is, in large part, why average revenue per unit of access capability keeps dropping.
At the same time, the profitability of providing telecom services is dropping. And revenue growth rates are near zero.
So 5G comes at a crucial juncture, testing whether big new revenue sources can be discovered or created, beyond what can be sold to human users. Also, 5G comes at a time when massive industry consolidation is likely, over the next decade, the period when 5G will rise to dominance.
So 5G will at least occur during a period of massive industry change, and might well be the driver of new winners and losers on a global scale.
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