“Are we finally nearing the end of spectrum allocation as we know it?” Rethink Wireless rhetorically asks. “One of the most-anticipated U.S. auctions ever has flopped, while the guardian of licensed spectrum technology, Qualcomm, has spawned a technology, MulteFire, which could allow organizations with no spectrum of their own at all to build cellular networks.”
Some with long experience in communications continue to insist that, without exclusive access or ability to maintain quality of service, large networks will not be built.
“In a research note, MoffettNathanson analysts posed the question which is concerning many investors in mobile operators around the globe: is spectrum an asset of real value any more?”
That obviously overplays the present trend. Spectrum auction prices have been lower for all of the recent big auctions (India, United States). So one existing trend is a lower valuation of new spectrum, by network operators.
One might reasonably ask what that could mean for public company valuation and capital spending patterns. How extensive the trend might become is unclear, but it seems already the case that potential bidders are aware they have other options to acquire new capacity, ranging from use of small cells to better radios, and with huge allocations of new spectrum--licensed and unlicensed--on the horizon.
“It is increasingly possible for service providers to build robust public wireless networks without licensed spectrum,” Rethink Wireless argues. Again, though possible, it remains unclear how prevalent that trend might ultimately become, the more-likely outcome being hybrid networks that blend licensed and unlicensed spectrum.
Also, Qualcomm’s MulteFire, allows service providers to run LTE in unlicensed spectrum, mainly 5 GHz, without the need for an anchor network in a licensed band (as other 5 GHz LTE approaches, like LTE-Unlicensed and LTE-LAA, do).
Big changes are coming.
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