If 5G Deployment Lags, Is That Necessarily a Problem?

Observers often note differential or lagging rates of deployment of advanced technology as though it were a critical problem to be addressed. That often is said to be an issue with home broadband or mobile services, often when comparing relative deployments across countries or regions. 

source: ITU 

Obviously, for social reasons, policymakers would prefer relatively-similar use of information and communications tools everywhere in the world. And though the traditional gaps between developed and developing country metrics are closing, the gap remains. 

On the other hand, the argument that some markets and countries “need” to deploy 5G, for example, is more suspect. Countries differ in their ability to deploy and then convert capabilities into economic growth. 

In many instances, even if 5G could be deployed rapidly, the costs of doing so might be prohibitive, compared to market demand. 

Often, technology investment is correlated with economic growth. But not always. There often is correlation, to be sure. But it often is hard even to show much difference in correlation between fast-developing and developed markets, for example, based on technology deployment and economic growth rates. 

“Output elasticity of ICT”  between  developing, emerging and developed countries does not reveal statistically significant differences, some researchers find. In other words, it is not clear that developing and emerging countries are gaining more from investments in information and communications technology than developed economies. 

source: Science Direct 

Economic development is a complicated matter, and the use of 4G or 5G might not outweigh all those other elements of the process. There often is an assumption that deploying technology “causes” higher economic growth. 

There often is correlation. But correlation is not causation. Nor does IT investment necessarily change underlying economic growth trends in ways we can quantify. Rarely--if ever--is it argued that IT investment harms growth. 

But we still cannot prove that it helps, and if it helps, how much aid was provided. If market demand cannot immediately support 5G, then 4G is a rational choice. If demand does not support gigabit networks, then networks offering lower bandwidth make sense.