With the caveat that device sales do not correlate fully with network connections, 5G device sales surpassed 4G device sales for the first time in January 2022. That is one more data point showing the 5G adoption process proceeding in the early stages of growth.
Consumer product adoption typically follows an “S” curve. The S curve suggests that any new product has a nonlinear growth pattern.
Initial customers are the bleeding edge of people who “have to have the latest thing.” Somewhere around 10 percent adoption of households or users, an inflection point is reached and the product enters the growth phase where it becomes mainstream.
The S curve describes product life cycles, suggests how business strategy changes depending on where on any single S curve a product happens to be, and has implications for innovation and start-up strategy as well.
S curves explain overall market development, customer adoption, product usage by individual customers, sales productivity, developer productivity and sometimes investor interest. It often is used to describe adoption rates of new services and technologies, including the notion of non-linear change rates and inflection points in the adoption of consumer products and technologies.
Growth rates continue at high rates until about 85 percent adoption is reached.
The point is that 5G--despite complaints--is an innovation that so far follows the typical adoption pattern. The growing sales of 5G-enabled devices is part of that early development.
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