In an unprecedented occurrence, fixed wireless services provided by T-Mobile and Verizon alone represented 38 percent share of broadband net adds in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to MoffettNathanson.
All skepticism aside, that has never happened before in the U.S. broadband market. So while we might still disagree about the size of the fixed wireless opportunity, early returns suggest 5G fixed wireless might have significant upside.
source: LightReading, MoffettNathanson
For many, the issue is "who" gains the share; who loses share; where customers are located and why they buy. In the fourth quarter of 2021, it appears T-Mobile and Verizon were share takers. It appears AT&T lost a bit.
It appears telco gains did come at the expense of cable TV operators. T-Mobile, which is emphasizing rural gains, might have been surprised by account gains in urban areas.
Verizon might be seeing a mix of fixed wireless for redundant access or small business purchases, especially as it can leverage its millimeter wave spectrum assets for urban access at gigabit speeds.
In T-Mobile's case, it would seem the adoption is of "fast enough speeds, fair enough price" customers. Verizon's customer base is likely skewed more to the gigabit per second end of the mass market, including use as a redundant or backup data connection.
In fact, were it not for fixed wireless net additions, telcos would have lost market share in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Concerns about limited bandwidth remain, but consumer adoption trends suggest those concerns are possibly overblown. At least for the moment, consumers see enough value to switch.
About half of Verizon's fixed wireless customers are coming from commercial accounts, MoffettNathanson says.
T-Mobile says nearly half of its fixed wireless customers represent market share gains at cable operator expense, the firm says.
Sector | Q4 2021 Gain/Loss | Q4 2020 Gain/Loss | Year-on-Year Growth % | Total |
Cable | +464,000 | +899,000 | +3.8% | 79.43 million |
Telco | -26,000 | +21,000 | -0.4% | 33.51 million |
FWA* | +302,000 | +81,000 | +463.9% | 869,000 |
Satellite | -35,000 | -35,000 | -6.6% | 1.66 million |
Total Wireline | +437,000 | +920,000 | +2.8% | 112.95 million |
Total Broadband | +704,000 | +966,000 | +3.3% | 115.48 million |
* Verizon and T-Mobile only |
source: LightReading, MoffettNathanson
No comments:
Post a Comment