Mobile service providers might be generating about $900 billion to $1.1 trillion in service revenues by about 2029 (not adjusted for inflation). Of that amount, perhaps 60 percent will be generated by 5G networks, suggesting 2029 5G revenue of about $600 million.
Of course, higher or lower forecasts also are made, and one has to remember that most 5G accounts will cannibalize 4G accounts, so the net change of total revenue will not be that large.
Total revenues in the mobile-enabled portion of the information technology ecosystem will, of course, be far larger. But that is typical for platforms. The value of electricity services, water, computer chips or software sold annually is far less than the value of all other economic activities using those platforms, for example.
Internet of things ecosystem value will show the same pattern. By 2025, IoT applications, platforms and services might represent 67 percent of total ecosystem value, for example, according to Ericsson. Connectivity might represent five percent of ecosystem revenue.
None of that is especially troubling, so long as other key legacy revenue drivers do not atrophy so fast that the new service revenues fail to outpace the losses. So far, most regions other than Europe have managed to do so.
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