Rogers, BCE Inc. and Telus Corp. have well over 80 percent of the installed base of mobile accounts in Canada. If the Rogers acquisition of Shaw Communications is approved, Rogers will gain another 10 percent of the installed base. At that point, three providers will control 90 percent of the installed base.
The upcoming auctions of mid-band 5G spectrum in Canada could offer some competitors a chance to enter the market as facilities-based providers.
The auction of 200 MHz in the 3500 MHz region features a 50 MHz set-aside in markets where enough spectrum is available, intended to promote competition by providing an opportunity for smaller and regional competitors to compete.
Some analysts expect Quebecor, which owns Videotron Ltd., is likely to bid for all the set-aside spectrum in the province of Quebec and in the city of Ottawa, for example. Videotron already offers mobility service in those areas.
As always, it remains to be seen whether the spectrum set-asides will significantly increase mobile service provider competition. Acquiring spectrum would allow the licensee to reduce operating costs, particularly by reducing the amount of wholesale capacity it has to buy. Lower operating costs would provide some measure of ability to control costs, which could lead to lower-price offers.
U.S. cable operators Comcast and Charter have sought to use that strategy: moving large portions of customer traffic onto “owned” networks, reducing the need to buy roaming (off-network) capacity.
That noted, it always is hard to break into the top ranks of a settled mobile market where three firms control 90 percent of the installed base.
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