It would generally be unrealistic to expect consumers to understand the intricacies of 5G, even though a new survey by NPD Group suggests 90 percent of respondents are “aware of 5G.” Given the higher amount of 5G marketing now happening in the U.S. market, that is not too surprising.
About 18 percent of respondents say they have heard of and understand the difference between the 5G network band types such as mid-band or high-band millimeter wave versions of 5G.
Some 66 percent of respondents report interest in purchasing a 5G-enabled smartphone.
Those of you who remember the introduction of 4G might recall that it takes a while for consumers to become familiar with the coming next-generation mobile network. At the beginning of 4G introduction, similar percentages of people said they were familiar with 4G. In early 2011, some 80 percent of respondents reported they were aware of 4G.
The important issue for service providers is how fast accounts ramp up, once widespread commercial marketing begins.
You might wonder why 4G adoption never reached closer to 100 percent of accounts. The answer is that some consumers and devices remained on 3G or older networks. Not all mobile accounts are for phones, for example. Some support sensor connections.
As a rule of thumb, popular consumer electronics products hit an inflection point once about 10 percent adoption (households or people) is reached. Looking at data on subscriptions in the U.S. market, that seems to have been the case. Using 2010 as the year of commercialization, 10 percent adoption seems to have been reached in 2011. By 2012 adoption was up to 15 percent.
If the 4G precedent holds, we should seek peak 5G adoption in nine years, just before 6G is commercially launched. If 4G provides a precedent, we also could see 5G adoption reach the crucial 10-percent adoption level in 2022.
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