5G Value: Still Probably Cost per Bit, at First

The value of 5G for mobile operators eventually will come in the form of new revenue opportunities, but initially is likely to come in the form of lower cost per bit.

It is fairly easy to describe the new use cases industry observers and executives believe will arise in the 5G era, and nearly all involve new enterprise applications. That was not the case in 2015, when, if asked, most experts were likely to point to mobile broadband, internet of things and other connected devices, plus low-latency applications. 

That should not be surprising, as it simply reflects the three big touted advantages of 5G advanced by standards bodies: enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable and low-latency apps and massive machine communications. 

Expectations have changed, and largely in the direction of new enterprise IoT use cases. In 2018, a survey showed high belief in the internet of things and video use cases, for example. Industrial automation also tended to be among the new use cases people expected.

source: Gartner 

Since then, expectations in some other surveys indicate something of a shift. 

By 2019, Gartner researchers suggested that  5G will not produce many sophisticated use cases for five to 10 years, and that would be in keeping with what happened in the 3G and 4G eras. Simply put, widespread new use cases--and perhaps not exotic at all--predicted for 3G did not happen until 4G. Many predicted 4G innovations might not happen until we are well into the 5G era.

And many hoped-for 5G innovations will not likely happen until 6G. That has been the pattern until now, and might well continue. 

Aside from lower cost per bit, important in a business where data consumption goes up every year but consumer budgets remain largely flat, 3G produced mobile internet access and mobile email. 

It would be hard to point to much beyond that, though. In the 4G era, entertainment video became possible, as well as a full multimedia web experience, plus a shift to mobile apps rather than mobile web.

Supporters have argued since 3G that more-exotic use cases would develop, but that has largely not happened.

source: Cisco

Right now, it is the internet of things, private networks, virtual private networks, artificial reality and augmented reality which always top lists of expected new use cases in the 5G era. Many of us expect that will not happen until the early days of 6G. 

And many of the big changes might not be reflected in end user applications but core network operations, such as a genuine fixed-mobile convergence where mobile devices automatically connect to whatever access resources are available, blurring the lines between mobile and all fixed network access platforms. 

The point is that even when the platform can support new use cases, people, businesses and app providers do not always embrace the more-futuristic use cases “within a decade.” It often takes up to two decades for that to happen.