By the end of 2018 average (“mean,” I believe) U.S. household data consumption on fixed networks was 268.7 gigabytes (I believe the figure is “per month”), according to Openvault, up about 19 percent from mid-year and up 33 percent from 2017 levels. So it seems likely that consumption will have grown at least 33 percent in 2019, and most likely higher.
Assume an average of 2.5 persons per household, each using the average amount of data. That suggests a mobile data consumption per household around 27 GB per month. But spreading use of “unlimited usage” plans likely will push consumption higher.
Customers on unlimited plans consume 67 percent more mobile data than consumers on usage-based plans in 2017, according to NPD.
Average monthly mobile data usage is around nine gigabytes per month. In a “typical” U.S. household of perhaps 2.5 people, that works out to about 27 GB per month of mobile data consumption, “per household,” on the mobile networks.
Others believe consumption is lower, at perhaps six gigabytes per user, per month, according to Strategy Analytics.
The issue is how high mobile data consumption might go. Ericsson believes it is possible U.S. mobile customers could be consuming 39 GB each, per month, by about 2024. In a “typical” household of 2.5 people, that implies potential “household” mobile data consumption of nearly 98 GB per month.
The implication is that mobile networks will have to be designed to carry between a quarter and a third of the data now expected in a typical U.S. household. That is a big jump from present levels. If the typical mobile user consumes 9 GB, and a household 268 GB, then mobile traffic is about three percent of fixed network levels.
That, in turn, implies an increase of mobile data capability by about an order of magnitude by 2024. Hence 5G, which will increase capacity by a minimum of 10 times over 4G networks.
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