Friday, November 22, 2019

5G is Going to Create High Volatility

While low-band spectrum is universally acknowledged as the best “coverage” spectrum, millimeter wave is the best when “capacity” is required. And though many say “mid-band” is the best balance of coverage and capacity, even mid-band assets will not affect overall bandwidth capabilities as millimeter wave spectrum. 

This can be seen in recent Opensignal measurements of speeds on new 5G networks. Where early tests of U.S. 5G rely exclusively on millimeter wave spectrum, the U.S. has the highest speed.

Australia, Switzerland and South Korea use mid-band spectrum and show gigabit speeds, but not as fast as millimeter, as theory suggests will be the case. 


Countries relying on low-band spectrum have lower speeds. 

Compared to existing 4G, 5G in early days has doubled to nearly tripled real-world speeds in some cases, but had almost no impact on speed in a few cases. Again, the choice of spectrum, or availability, really do matter. Where low-band spectrum is the 5G choice, it sometimes does not life speeds very much. 


Such choices should be kept in mind as we enter a period of potentially highly-volatile changes in average speed differentials between countries, based on whether 5G is adopted, or not, and which spectrum assets are widely used. 

Old rules of thumb are likely to be upended in the first several years of the transition to 5G, as some nations move earlier, while others wait, and as reliance on millimeter wave varies from place to place. 

As always, we are reminded to take global rankings with a bit of skepticism. Things change, where it comes to internet access adoption, speed and cost. In that regard, 5G is going to be highly disruptive. 

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