Smartphone data usage never is as simple and transparent as one would guess, since most users likely use Wi-Fi for most of the activity. And much hinges on the nature of data plans.
Where consumers routinely buy unlimited usage plans, Wi-Fi might represent half, or perhaps less, of total device data activity. That seems to be the case in the U.S. market, as all the major service providers have moved to support some form of “unlimited” usage on some plans.
The issue has been what might happen in the 5G era, when mobile access speeds and latency performance are equal to or better than fixed access. So long as the tariff structure is similar, it seems inevitable that some market share will shift from fixed to mobile.
On the other hand, at least some service providers might still see advantages to encouraging users to switch to Wi-Fi. The prime example is mobile virtural network operators who must buy wholesale capacity. In those cases, the service provider has a vested interest in seeing its customers switch to Wi-Fi whenever possible.
So switching effects will likely vary within any single market and between markets, depending on MVNO market share.
That might reverse the historic pattern of users switching to Wi-Fi from the mobile network when they can. In the earlier days of 4G, when tariffs were higher, switching to Wi-Fi was logical and saved users money.
If 5G is available in unlimited use plans, so most users effectively never have to worry about how much data they are consuming, we are likely to see a reduction in use of Wi-Fi, compared to staying on the mobile network all the time.
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