Projections for 5G adoption generally assume demand will resemble 4G to a great extent. If so, we might expect 5G adoption to reach 50 percent adoption by about four to five years after full commercial launch in any single area or country.
And some might note that adoption might not be especially driven by demand for higher speeds or new services, but simply by handset replacement cycles. Five years is long enough for just about any user to need to replace a device. And it is logical to expect service providers to push 5G-capable models and service plans as those devices are purchased.
The 4G (Long Term Evolution) commercial launch began in 2008 with early deployments of data cards by TeliaSonera in Sweden in December 2009. Deployments in the United States and Europe started in 2010. Globally, it is worth noting, by 2019, nearly a decade later, adoption of 4G had reached about 53 percent of global connections.
In any single market, 4G reached 50 percent adoption after about 3.5 years in the United States and Japan. Adoption elsewhere has taken a bit longer, perhaps five years in the United Kingdom, for example, and longer than that in other European countries. In Singapore 4G got higher adoption than 3G in about 17 months.
The point is that it is reasonable to believe 5G might reach the 50-percent level of commercial use in any single country by about four to five years after full commercial launch.
No comments:
Post a Comment