If, between 2019 and 2028 the video business adds more than $200 billion in new revenues, it is hard to imagine how 5G will not be an enabler, if mobile advertising and over-the-top mobile video continue to grow.
Perhaps the bigger question is how much of the overall revenue growth might be earned by mobile service providers in a direct sense.
Mobile connectivity providers might benefit indirectly, as the amount of mobile video consumption continues to increase. The upside is more demand for bandwidth; the downside is the ability to monetize that consumption.
The average monthly traffic per 5G subscriber will grow from 11.7 GB in 2019 to 84.4 GB per month in 2028, at which point video will account for 90 percent of all 5G traffic, according to a study by Ovum, sponsored by Intel.
Some, including Intel, believe, even if new revenues will be spread across the video ecosystem. Much of that growth comes from revenue generated by new virtual reality and augmented reality features, services and applications, as well as advertising.
The issue for service providers, as always, is how much of that growth will accrue to the “connectivity provider” part of the ecosystem.
Ovum researchers estimate 5G-enabled augmented and virtual reality applications will create more than $140 billion in cumulative revenues between 2021 and 2028 ($32bn in the United States market).
Also, mobile display advertising will generate $178 billion worldwide by 2028 ($66.6 billion in the United States, as advertising shifts to 5G-enabled social and media immersive experiences, Ovum researchers say.
AR games will make up more than 90 percent of 5G AR revenues by 2028 ($35.7 billion globally).
Overall 5G mobile games revenues, including AR and cloud gaming, will exceed $100bn annually in 2028 ($20 billion in the United States).
Mobile video revenues enabled by 5G will grow at an 85 percent compound annual growth rate between 2021 to 2028.
Precisely where 5G media revenues might be earned is fairly clear; which entities and industry segments gain that revenue is much less clear.
Enhanced mobile media (video, music, and games) delivered on 5G networks, for example, will undoubtedly be one of the top revenue drivers. The share earned by mobile service providers will hinge on their ownership of the actual services or any partner revenues that are earned indirectly.
That same question can be asked of the enhanced mobile advertising opportunity (mobile display advertising such as videos, banners, in-game placement over 5G, and other visual advertising formats that may appear in VR and AR environments).
Home broadband and TV might be a revenue contributor for mobile operators to the extent that 5G becomes the primary home internet connection bundled with a TV package.
Some also believe new applications such as self-driving car entertainment, 3D holographic displays, and connected haptic suits could produce revenues. Again, which ecosystem participants benefit directly, is the issue.
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