Not everyone believes 5G will be that significant as a driver of wireless or mobile substitution for fixed network internet services. Pricing, speeds and existing competition all matter, of course.
But Deloitte Global already predicts that 20 percent of North Americans with internet access will get all of their home data access from mobile networks in 2018. Granted, most of those users likely are lower-income, lighter users with good access to Wi-Fi they can use without extra charge.
But there is growing awareness that 5G is a functional substitute for fixed network internet access, just as mobile has mostly replaced consumer voice purchases and is believed by many to be a next-generation video entertainment product.
Verizon, for example, believes 5G fixed wireless could be a relevant option for 30 percent of U.S. homes. Boost Mobile in Australia also believes 5G will be a direct competitor to fixed line internet access services.
Many will remain skeptical that so much mobile substitution can happen, but trends already show that even when mobile is not competitive with fixed access for heavy users, it might well be a reasonable option for most lighter users.
Consultants at Deloitte believe mobile 5G could compete for, and win, as much as 30 percent to 40 percent share of consumer internet access accounts now served by fixed networks.
In most developing countries, mobile already is the way most people get internet access. The bigger change, though, will come as 5G potentially offers faster speeds than the fixed network in developed and developing countries.
In most cases, even when 5G offers only comparable speeds to fixed internet access, and comparable prices, that still opens up a huge possible shift of market share.
Deloitte Global further predicts that a mixture of mobile and fixed wireless access technologies could lead to 30 percent to 40 percent of the population relying on wireless for data at home by 2022, an increase from 10 percent in 2013.
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